Thunder Dan’s MLB Betting Picks for July 23: Pitcher Props, Totals, Run Line Bets


Hey there, it’s your friendly neighborhood sports betting enthusiast, Thunder Dan, here and I’m back with more MLB bets! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!

Recently, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I’ll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Saturday, July 23rd, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections

I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers’ SwStr%, BB%, etc… These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.

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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets

Less to like here today and a few spots that might pop on the chart that I can’t get fully on board with for bets based on odds or other factors.

Gerrit Cole o7.5K vs. BAL (-110 DK)

We can start with the big dog, who needs 8 against the Orioles for us to hit. This line is on the move, I grabbed it at +110 last night and I am guessing it continues to move as the day goes along. Cole whiffed 11 Orioles in his last start against them over 8 innings, though he did allow five runs in that start. I’ll continue our theme from yesterday in backing elite aces over 7.5 in good match-ups, even if we did miss on a few.

Kyle Wright o5.5K vs. LAA (-150 FD)

Wright hasn’t had the same elite K stuff recently that he had earlier in the year, but again we get the Angels here as an elite match-up and I’m biting, even with the juice attached.

Max Meyer o4.5K vs. PIT (+104 FD)

We are getting plus odds for five strikeouts, these are situations that I always want to attack! Meyer got five Phillies in his debut, despite also giving up five runs, and the Pirates are a team that we have to keep attacking with capable arms. Meyer is a pretty big prospect with solid K numbers in the minors, so this is another great ladder spot if you wanted to run him up to say 7-8 on FD,

It’s so tempting to go after Manoah, Singer, or even someone like Joe Ryan today, but I am going to attempt to practice some restraint here as there is something I don’t like about every other spot.


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MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals

Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+100 DK)

I like the value we are getting on the run line here. The Braves are just so much better as a team than the Angels, that you can’t really even pay as much attention to the pitching match-up as you normally would. Sandoval is a good young pitcher, but Kyle Wright has been solid, too, and at some point, you just have to think the Braves overwhelm the Angels with their offense, even if it happens late in the game like last night.

MIA/PIT under 8 runs (-110 FD)

I know my buddy Eric Samulski was pretty upset that this game went over last night, but I think the smart money is still on the under here with both offenses being below average and some decent starters on the mound (Quintana hasn’t been bad and Miami struggles against lefties).

TEX/OAK over 7.5 runs (-110 FD)

Yes, the Oakland offense is bad, but Texas is rolling out Taylor Hearn in this one and Oakland can hit lefties. Texas should be able to score some runs off Kaprielian, too, who hasn’t been good this year. Neither team has a great bullpen, so why is this total under 8?


MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends

I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, not to make picks from exclusively.

(click to enlarge)


I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!

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