Thunder Dan’s MLB Betting Picks for July 16: Pitcher Props, Totals, Run Line Bets


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The weekend is here and we have games scattered across the day at multiple different times, so there should be continuous baseball for 10-12 hours to wager on today! Hey there, it’s your friendly neighborhood sports betting enthusiast, Thunder Dan, here and I’m back with more MLB bets! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!

Recently, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.

In this article, I’ll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Saturday, July 16th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.

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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections

I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers’ SwStr%, BB%, etc… These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.

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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets

I don’t have all day to wait around for some more props to come out, so here is what I have as of right now and I will include a few other guys at the end to keep an eye on.

Sean Manaea o5.5K vs. ARI (+110 DK)

This is closer than I would like it from a projection standpoint, and Arizona has been trending up offensively while cutting down their strikeouts a bit. But then again, Yu Darvish went out and whiffed nine last night. Manaea has seen Arizona three times already and has 6 or more in each start. As long as he makes it through six innings, I think he gets there and the value here is attractive enough for me to bite. If he had been around -140 or -150 I may have skipped it.

Nick Lodolo o4.5K vs. STL (-128 FD)

Lodolo is a talented young left-hander who unfortunately had to miss two months of the season after getting called up early in the year to join the rotation. He has five or more strikeouts in four of his five big league starts, including a 7-strikeout outing against the Cards back in April before his injury. This number is just way too low for a guy with his quality of stuff, even against a solid STL lineup.

Julio Urias to record a win (+100 DK) and over 17.5 outs (-115 DK)

So they boosted Urias to 6.5 strikeouts right out of the gate, and I am not going back down that road after Kershaw last night. However, while Kershaw didn’t get the strikeouts we did see him effortlessly dominate this lineup and pitch deep into the game. Without Mike Trout, it’s literally just Ohtani that you have to pitch around and I think the chances of Urias going six innings and getting the win here are very likely, especially with the Dodger offense having a mismatch against the LA starter Suarez.

Who else to watch for?

Mad Max’s prop won’t be out until much later, since that game is the second one of a doubleheader, but I would be on him at o7.5 for sure. Verlander is the other guy I want today, and I am looking for him to open at 6.5 at some decent odds.


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MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals

LAD -1.5 (-110 DK)

There are a few other big spreads today with Atlanta and Houston heavily favored, but their run lines are up over -150 and I hate that juice. I’ll take the Dodgers to cover today. Urias should bounce back against this terrible Angels lineup and the LA bats are rounding back into form and scored 9 off the Angels last night.

PIT/COL over 11.5 runs (-110 DK)

The Rockies covered the total by themselves last night, scoring 13 runs off Quintana and the Pirates pen. I think the Pirates could get revenge tonight and they have a slight advantage with Keller on the bump compared to Urena for Colorado.

Regardless of who wins, I think we see a lot more offense. Neither starter is good, nor are the bullpens and I was expecting to see this one open at 12 runs or more.

CIN/STL under 8.5 runs (-115 DK)

Two really good pitchers and some offenses that have been less than stellar lately – sounds like the perfect recipe for an under. Busch Stadium has long been known as a pitcher-friendly park and I think we see pitching dominate today.

Keep an eye on that first Mets/Cubs game that I was on yesterday, I like the under as low as 8, the wind is blowing IN at Wrigley today.


MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends

I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, not to make picks from exclusively.

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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!

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